API reports draw while market awaits EIA report

Both Brent and WTI is trading in a range ahead of crucial OPEC meeting on November 30th. WTI is currently trading at $57.8 per barrel and Brent at $5.3 per barrel premium to WTI.

Key factors at play in crude oil market –

• Russia yet remains undecided over joining the OPEC production agreement extension.
• Columbia rejected calls to attend OPEC meeting on November 30th
• OPEC chief called on members to take up extraordinary steps to reduce the imbalance in 2018. OPEC remains confident that imbalance reducing.
• Saudi oil minister Khalid Al-Falih vowed to continue with agreement unless glut vanishes.
• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin-Salman led Corruption Committee arrested scores princes, scores of senior officials and incumbent ministers. One prince died in a shootout while resisting arrest.  The corruption Committee has seized billions of dollars’ worth of assets.
• Iraq remains the biggest cheater in OPEC in terms of the agreement.
• OPEC report showed production declined by 151,000 barrels in October.
• OPEC production increased by 88,000 barrels/day in September after declining by 79,000 barrels per day m/min August, and that after an increase of 173,000 barrels per day in July. In June production rose by 393,000 barrels per day in June compared to the previous month. In May production increased by 366,000 barrels per day.
• President Trump declined to certify Iran’s compliance with the agreement and pushed it to Congress.
• OPEC YTD compliance at 96 percent and non-OPEC compliance at 70 percent.
• Current U.S production at 9.645 million barrels per day.
• The oil market is in backwardation, both Brent, and WTI.
• API reported a draw of 6.356 million barrels of crude oil. Gasoline saw a build of 0.87 million barrels.

Today’s inventory report from US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released at 15:30 GMT.

Trade idea –

• Active call - WTI reached the target of $56 per barrel and Brent reached $65 per barrel. Next target for Brent at $68 per barrel.

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