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Gold bugs are having terrible time this year as Gold has fallen more than -7.5% so far this year, down more than -15% in last 12 months. Moreover Gold hasn't reacted to uncertainty and geo-political tensions in the past.
Why gold lost its traditional shine?
- Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation. In today's world in spite of massive easing from central banks, there are little or no signs of inflation.
- Gold began its mega upward trajectory post 2008/09 crisis and in line with massive easing from Federal Reserve and moved from $800/troy ounce in 2009 to $1920/ troy ounce in September 2011. With monetary policy on the reverse Gold is clearly out of shine these days.
- Stronger Dollar is creating heavy headwinds for Gold. FXCM US dollar index is up 14% in last 12 months.
- With large amount of central bank money in the market, investor now have better assets to invest. For example - equity buying has been shining thanks to quantitative easing.
- Central banks' money is also the reason, why Gold lost its safe haven touch. For example - If situation is bad FED won't hike rates or more QE - these are the strategies clearly in play that outshined Gold.
- Though Russian Central Bank has remained a gold bug, Gold has lost its shine among central banks too. Central banks have traditionally been last resort buyer of gold.
- Additional taxes in India and slowdown in China has hit the physical gold market hard. Naturally physical market has not been strong enough to compensate for reduction in investment demand.
Gold is currently trading at $1092/ troy ounce, with support around $1060 and resistance at $1120.
