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Vietnam's financial sector faces a crisis as the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) injects nearly $26 billion into Saigon Joint Stock Commercial Bank (SCB), equating to 5% of the nation's 2024 GDP. The bailout follows the collapse of SCB after the 2022 arrest of real estate tycoon Truong My Lan, who allegedly embezzled $44 billion through fraudulent loans.
Sun Group, appointed in late 2023 to oversee SCB’s restructuring, plans to stabilize the bank over 15 years, repaying the central bank starting in year 14. However, the plan’s approval remains uncertain. SCB has been in freefall since the scandal, with deposits plunging from 669 trillion dong in October 2022 to just 19.2 trillion dong by the end of 2024. The bank's capital adequacy ratio, which must be at least 9%, has plummeted to a staggering -176%.
Vietnamese authorities initially injected $4 billion into SCB within weeks of Lan’s arrest to prevent systemic collapse, but the bank remains reliant on SBV’s special loans. Court proceedings upheld Lan’s death sentence in December 2024, further exposing widespread financial mismanagement.
Sun Group, which has experience in banking through its stake in National Citizen Commercial Joint Stock Bank, aims to revive SCB by injecting 3 trillion dong ($120 million) and leveraging investments in government bonds and infrastructure. Asset sales, including land rights and collateralized properties, are expected to cover half of SBV’s loans, while new profits will handle the remainder. However, much of SCB’s loan book consists of shell companies with inflated collateral values, raising doubts about the recovery.
With Vietnam facing external economic risks, including a global trade war, SCB’s fate will be a key test of the nation’s banking oversight and financial stability.
