Vale Iron Ore Output Drops 4.5% in Q1 2025, Copper and Nickel Surge

Brazilian mining giant Vale reported a 4.5% year-on-year drop in iron ore production for Q1 2025, totaling 67.7 million metric tons. The decline was attributed to heavy rainfall disrupting operations in its Northern Brazil complex. Despite the lower output, iron ore sales rose 3.6% to 66.1 million tons, as Vale tapped into existing inventories and prioritized medium-grade products amid shifting market demand.

The average realized price of iron ore fines dropped to $90.80 per ton, down nearly 10% from a year earlier and 2.4% from Q4 2024. Vale maintained its full-year production forecast of 325 to 335 million tons, citing the ramp-up of new projects VGR1 and Capanema.

Citi analysts noted that iron ore figures were largely in line with expectations, while copper and nickel results exceeded forecasts. They anticipate only minor revisions to consensus EBITDA and expect Vale’s stock to remain stable in response.

Vale's copper production climbed 11% year-on-year to approximately 90,900 tons, driven by strong output from Canada’s Voisey’s Bay and Brazil’s Salobo and Sossego operations. Copper sales increased by 6.6% to 81,900 tons.

Nickel output also surged 11% to around 43,900 tons, bolstered by improved performance at Onça Puma in Brazil and Canadian sites. Nickel sales jumped 17.5% to 38,900 tons.

Vale is set to release its Q1 earnings on April 24, and market watchers will be looking closely at its performance across key minerals as the company navigates production challenges and fluctuating commodity prices.