There is a widespread view that USD rallies ahead of the first Fed hike and sells off after. While this holds on average, the degree of dispersion suggests it would be unwise to rely on it.
"We remain USD positive into next year, particularly against JPY. The US is better placed than most countries to shoulder currency appreciation. We find global demand is a more important driver for US export growth than the level of USD", argues RBC Capital Markets.
And because much of global trade is denominated in USD, the US sees lower exchange rate pass-through than other countries. That means both on the growth and the inflation front, USD has room to rise.


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