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USD: A more optimistic outlook

The FOMC rate decision (Wednesday), first Q2 estimate of GDP (Thursday) and Employment Cost Index (Friday) are the main events for the week ahead. The FOMC statement should not present material changes, but risks are tilted towards a more optimistic rhetoric as recent economic data have improved and near-term risks regarding Greece have receded. The Employment Cost Index should shed some light regarding wage pressure (consensus: 0.6% q/q, 2.4% y/y), as it is one of the measures that better correlates with core inflation. 

Barclays notes:

  • We expect the first estimate of the Q2 GDP to confirm that Q1 weakness was influenced by transitory factors. 

  • We anticipate an above consensus 3.0% q/q growth (consensus: 2.5%) with consumer spending advancing at a 2.7% rate. This suggests that the USD will likely continue with its upward trajectory, having an additional support from soft commodity prices and a slowing China.

  • Market Data
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