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The United States’ unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.4 percent and monthly growth in wages of 0.3 percent. Given the uncertainties, it seems likely that a weak outturn will probably be seen by both markets and Fed policymakers as giving little new insight into underlying economic trends.
The monthly labor market report is normally seen as a key indicator of the state of the US economy. September readings, however, may be severely distorted by the impacts of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. As a result, analysts are penciling in forecasts for September payrolls more than 100k below the average monthly increases seen in recent years.
"We forecast a rise of 60k based on a temporary negative effect similar to that from the 2005 hurricanes. Other parts of the report are likely to be less impacted," Lloyds Bank commented in its latest research report.
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