US labor market slack probably eroded further in September

The BLS' household survey is expected to echo the positive tone of the nonfarm payroll report. Assuming that the recent relationship between the establishment and household employment measures held steady during the reference period, the latter series likely expanded by 200,000 in September, marginally eclipsing the 196,000 persons who found work in August. The civilian labor force probably remained on a saw-toothed path during the reference period, with an estimated 90,000 additional persons seeking work, following a 41,000 prior-period contraction. Taken together, the aforementioned increases would leave the unemployment rate one tick lower at 5.0% (5.039% unrounded) - the lowest level since April 2008. 
Looking ahead, labor-market conditions are expected to tighten further during the fall quarter, paring the unemployment rate to 4.9% and matching the most recent FOMC projection for full employment. Broader labor slack gauges are expected to show further improvement as well last month. 

"Our conventional unemployment rate forecast would be consistent with the BLS' U-6 measure, which includes both marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, dipping to 10.2% - the tightest reading since June 2008", notes Societe Generale.

With the civilian population expected to expand by 230,000 in September, the participation rate would shed one tick to 62.5% - the lowest reading since October 1977