Market Roundup
- Sterling falls to day's low of $1.4602 after UK inflation prints at zero.
- China C.Bank: Will use variety of policy tools in flexible manner to keep liquidity appropriate.
- European Union Feb Industrial Production mm increases to 1.1 % (consensus 0.4 %) vs previous -0.1 %.
- United Kingdom Mar CPI mm decreases to +0.2 % (consensus 0.2 %) vs previous 0.3 %.
- United Kingdom Mar RPI-X (Retail Prices) mm decreases to +0.2 % (consensus 0.3 %) vs previous 0.5 %.
- United Kingdom Mar PPI Output Prices mm NSA stays flat at +0.2 % (consensus 0.2 %) vs previous 0.2 %.
- China Q1 FX Reserves decreases to 3.73 tln $ (consensus 3.80 tln $) vs previous 3.840 tln $.
- China Mar Outstanding Loan Growth decreases to 14 % (consensus 14.5 %) vs previous 14.3 %.
- China Mar M2 Money Supply yy decreases to 11.6 % (consensus 12.3 %) vs previous 12.5 %.
- Italy Mar Consumer Prices Final mm stays flat at 0.1 % (consensus 0.1 %) vs previous 0.1 %.
- Italy Mar CPI (EU Norm) Final mm increases to 2.1 % (consensus 2.0 %) vs previous 2.0 %.
- Germany Mar Wholesale Price Index yy increases to -1.1 % vs previous -2.1 %.
- Germany Mar Wholesale Price Index mm increases to 1.0 % vs previous 0.5 %.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 EDT/1230GMT) US Retail Sales (Mar) consensus +1.0% m/m, previous -0.6% m/m
- (0830 EDT/1230GMT) US Retail Sales ex-Autos (Mar) consensus +0.6% m/m, previous -0.1% m/m
- (0830 EDT/1230GMT) US Retail Sales Control Group (Mar) consensus +0.5% m/m, previous 0.0% m/m
- (0830 EDT/1230GMT) US PPI Final Demand (Mar) consensus +0.2% m/m, -0.8% y/y, previous -0.5% m/m, -0.6% y/y
- (0830 EDT/1230GMT) US PPI Final ex-food/energy consensus +0.1% m/m, +0.9% y/y; previous -0.5% m/m +1.0% y/y
- (0855 EDT/1255GMT) US Redbook Same Store Sales Index previous +3.4% y/y
- (0900 EDT/1300GMT) US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Mar) previous 98.0
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) USBusiness Inventories (Feb) consensus +0.2% m/m, previous 0.0% m/m
Key Events Ahead
- (1245 EDT/1645GMT) FedTrade Operation 30-year Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac securities (max $1.850 bln)
- (1530 EDT/1930 GMT)FedTrade Operation 15-year Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac securities (max $725 mln)
- (2100 EDT/0100GMT) FRB Minneapolis's Kocherlakota remarks at town hall forum; Winona, MN
FX Recap
EUR/USD partially trimmed losses in the European session and is currently trading at 1.0555 levels, recovering from the low of 1.0530 levels hit earlier in the day. The pair faces major support at 1.0457 (2015 low ) levels and a break below could drag it to 1.0400 (psychological level) and further to 1.0360 (low Jan.8 2003) levels. On the downside, a rise above 1.0620 (high ) would see the pair testing 1.0684 (high ) levels and then 1.0713 (Low ) levels. Option expiries at 1.0500 (1.1B), 1.0605 (534M), 1.0605 (534M).
GBP/USD falls to day's low of $1.4602 after UK consumer inflation stood at zero percent. It currently trades at 1.4645 levels with the immediate support at 1.4600 (psychological level), blow which losses could be extended to 1.4567 (2015 low ) and finally 1.4500 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistance is located at 1.4700, and a break above would target 1.4724 (high ) and then 1.4740 (low Apr.1). Option expiries at 1.4500 (537M), 1.4800 (612M).
USD/CAD has retreated after making a high of 1.2640 levels. Short term trend is bullish as long as support 1.2540 (200 day HMA) holds. On the downside any break below 1.2540 will take the pair further down till 1.2500/1.2480. The pair's minor resistance is around 1.2620 and any break above would extend gains till 1.2660/ /1.27080 in short term. Option expiries at 1.2750 (300M), 1.2800 (338M), 1.3050 (750M).
USD/JPY was seen under pressure on stronger Japanese exporter sales at Tokyo fix. It traded in 119.55-120.17 range today. Huge bids seen between 119.20/25. On the topside, the pair has resistance at 120.18 (5-DMA) levels and a break above could push the pair to 120.88 (April 13 High) levels. On the flip side, support might be found at 119.35 (100-DMA) below that at 119 levels. option expiries at 118.00 (1.3B), 120.00 (625M), 121.00 (2.1B).
EUR/CHF temporarily touched 1.0297 levels, lowest level since Jan 29. The pair saw greater selling interest in early London on broad euro weakness, and met demand under 1.0300. Overnight high was 1.03385. USD/CHF seen in whippy 0.9755/89 trading range on the day so far.
