Market Roundup
- GBP/USD new trend low of 1.4821, below 2013 low.
- Euro under pressure, but well off this week's 12-year lows.
- Greek PM Tsipras says Greece wants to implement the agreement with euro zone from Feb 20.
- BOE governor: BOE expects to make limited and gradual increases in rates over the next three years.
- Fed chair: Inflation will move up toward its 2 pct objective" before fed starts to raise interest rates.
- Russia CB cuts key rate to 14pct, in line with expectations.
- United Kingdom Jan Construction Output volume yy decreases to -3.1 % (consensus 2.2 %) vs previous 5.5 %.
- United Kingdom Jan Construction Output volume mm decreases to -2.6 % (consensus 1.2 %) vs previous 0.4 %.
- Italy Feb CPI (EU norm) final mm stays flat at 0.3 % (consensus 0.3 %) vs previous 0.3 %.
- Italy Feb Consumer Prices final mm increases to 0.4 % (consensus 0.3 %) vs previous 0.3 %.
- Germany Feb Wholesale Price Index mm increases to 0.5 % vs previous -0.4 %.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) Canada Feb Jobless consensus 6.7%, 6.6% previous.
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) Canada Feb Participation rate consensus 65.7%, 65.7% previous.
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) Canada Feb Employment change consensus -5.0k, 35.4k previous.
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US PPI Feb consensus +0.3% mm, 0.0% yy; previous -0.8/0.0%.
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Core PPI Feb consensus +0.1% mm, +1.6% yy; previous -0.1/1.6%.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Michigan Sentiment prelim Mar consensus 95.5, previous 95.4.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Current Condition prelim Mar consensus 105.7, previous 106.9.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Expectations(prelim Mar consensus 87.5, previous 88.0
Key Events Ahead
- No major macro-economic events scheduled
FX Recap
EUR/USD moved further south in Europe, retreating from the session highs as the euro fails to hold ground against the strengthening US dollar after concerns over Greece rise again. It now trades at 1.0608 levels. On the topside, pair sees immediate resistance at 1.0635 levels, and above which it could extend gains to 1.0683 levels. On the other hand, support is located at 1.0550 levels and then at 1.0494 levels. Option expiries at 1.0600 (381M), 1.0650 (409M).
USD/JPY has taken support around 120.62(200 day H EMA) and has recovered from that level. Overall trend is bullish as long as support 120.48 (23.6% retracement of 115.55 and 122.01) holds. On the downside minor support is around 121 and any break below will target 120.50/119.90 (200 day HMA). The pair's minor resistance is around 122.20 and above that level it will reach 123/124.13. Option expiries at 120.50 (550M), 121.00 (1.5BLN), 122.00 (1BLN).
AUD/USD was unable to break above the 0.7710 levels and turned red on Friday. It is now trading at 0.7690, after posting a daily high at 0.7712 and low at 0.7668. The overall trend remains bearish. It sees strong resistance at 0.7710, 0.7730 and 0.7740. To the flipside, support is located at 0.7650 and 0.7600. Option expiries at 0.7600 (1BLN), 0.7645-50 (650M), 0.7700 (826M), 0.7720 (260M).
USD/CHF reversed partial losses on Friday and turned positive driven by a strengthening US dollar. It currently trades at 1.0058 levels. On the topside, the immediate resistance is seen at 1.0110 levels and then at 1.0131 levels. On the flipside, immediate support is seen at 1.00 levels and below which the losses could be extended to 0.9966 levels. EUR/CHF continues trading in the thin 1.0603-1.0753 range. A convincing break below the 1.0610 support could push the pair to 1.0560 levels.
GBP/USD makes a new low of 1.4807 and currently trades at 1.4823 levels. Major support is around 1.4800 (double bottom support) and any break below will confirm the continuation of bearishness. Below that it can reach till 1.4440/1.4200. The pair's minor resistance is around 1.4950 and any break above will extend gain till 1.5025/1.5100. EUR/GBP has bounced off lows at 0.7013 levels seen this week and currently trades at 0.7152 levels. Option expiries at 1.4980 (317M), 1.5000 (723M).
