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The number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits fell last week, signaling continued stability in the labor market despite weak hiring and an ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Economists at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimate that initial jobless claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ending October 11, down from 235,000 the previous week.
With the shutdown halting official economic data releases, economists relied on state-reported figures submitted to the Labor Department’s database, which remains accessible. Missing data from Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Tennessee prompted economists to make projections based on recent trends. Goldman Sachs estimated total claims between 211,000 and 225,000, assuming those states’ figures aligned with prior levels.
Despite political gridlock in Washington, unemployment claims remain stable, showing no major spikes even as thousands of federal contractors are affected. Federal employees file separately, and their claims data have not yet been released. The Labor Department typically follows similar estimation methods for delayed state data.
JPMorgan economist Abiel Reinhart noted that the latest jobless claims indicate layoffs remain minimal, suggesting the unemployment rate is holding steady. Continuing claims—seen as a measure of hiring—were estimated at around 1.92 million for the week ending October 4, showing no significant improvement. The national unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years.
Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring labor trends ahead of their late-October policy meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said that both layoffs and hiring remain subdued, with businesses reporting muted demand for workers. A Bank of America Institute survey also showed declining small-business hiring and wage-related job applications, highlighting broader economic caution.
Economists say the labor market remains in a “no hire, no fire” phase, shaped by trade tensions, immigration policies, and the growing influence of artificial intelligence.
