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The United Kingdom’s gilts surged during Monday’s afternoon session, ahead of the country’s manufacturing production for the month of January, scheduled to be held on March 12 by 09:30GMT. Also, the UK Parliament’s vote on the no-deal Brexit will be held this week, which shall provide further direction to the debt markets.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, fell 2 basis points to 1.17 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields slipped nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 1.691 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year edged 1-1/2 basis points down to 0.734 percent by 10:30GMT.
All eyes in the UK this week will be on Brexit, with the long-awaited next vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal set to be held tomorrow, and – if the PM loses it – subsequent votes possibly to be held on whether to exit with no deal (on Wednesday) or request the EU to agree an extension of the Article 50 deadline (on Thursday), Daiwa Capital Markets reported.
However, the negotiations between the EU and UK – specifically on new arrangements related to the Irish border backstop – remain deadlocked. So, while talks will continue today, May appears likely to have little if anything new to offer MPs tomorrow on top of the deal that was rejected by a record majority of 230 votes at end-January.
As such, if she re-runs the ‘meaningful vote’ tomorrow, she’d surely be on track for another defeat firmly in three figures. As last month, therefore, to avoid another humiliating defeat, it’s possible that the PM will simply back an amendment on the need to agree alternative arrangements to the Irish backstop, the report added.
If so, it’s also possible that she will not proceed with the votes she earlier promised on whether to proceed with a no-deal Brexit, or whether to seek an extension of the Article 50 deadline. And then attention will shift to the EU summit on March 21-22 where all will be up for grabs, with the decisive votes probably then to be held in the last week of March.
Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 remained 1 percent higher at 7,172.05 by 10:35GMT, while at 10:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Pound Strength Index remained highly bearish at -148.90 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
