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Today's Summer Budget was more about fulfilling election pledges than economics. As expected, the government announced major cuts in welfare spending but it still has to find additional savings in the autumn spending round of a similar magnitude.
Whilst the OBR reckons that the UK is still likely to post a budget surplus by 2020, we still believe that this relies on some heroic assumptions for revenue growth, says Commerzbank.
Mr. Osborne's intention was to make good on his election promises to cut welfare spending and taxes, in order to make work more attractive than welfare. The measures announced today certainly go in this direction.In keeping with his pre-election pledge, the Chancellor indicated that the UK will not only post a budget surplus by 2020 but will enshrine into law the requirement to continue generating a surplus. That may, however, be a step too far.
Mr. Osborne also announced that he will roll back recent increases in the Bank Levy over the next six years. In its place, he announced an 8% surcharge on banks' profits from 1 January 2016, notes Commerzbank.
