While lower oil prices should help to revive the manufacturing sector this year, Jan's figures may disappoint. Industrial production (09.30 GMT) fell by a monthly 0.2% in Dec.
This was partly due to a decline in mining and gas output, reflecting extended maintenance in some North Sea oil fields. But even core manufacturing output only managed a minimal rise.
Capital Economics notes in a report on Tuesday:
- The output balance of the Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing is a leading indicator of official output and points to a further slowdown in manufacturing output growth in the near term.
- So we forecast a small monthly fall of 0.2% in February.
