Treasury Wine Estates Shares Hit 10-Year Low After Withdrawing 2026 Guidance Amid Weak China Demand

Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE), the global producer behind premium brands like Penfolds and Wolf Blass, saw its shares tumble to a decade low on Monday after the company scrapped its fiscal 2026 earnings forecast. The wine giant attributed the move to slowing demand in China and ongoing challenges in its U.S. operations.

The Sydney-listed stock plunged as much as 14.2% to A$5.99, marking its lowest point since September 2015. The drop came after Treasury Wine announced it no longer viewed its previous “low to mid double-digit” earnings growth projection for fiscal 2026 as realistic.

According to preliminary figures, sales of the company’s flagship Penfolds brand in China underperformed expectations despite modest improvement in September. Weaker consumer demand persisted through the Mid-Autumn Festival period, a traditionally strong sales window for luxury wines. The disappointing figures highlight the continued volatility in China’s premium wine market following recent economic headwinds.

In the United States, Treasury Americas also struggled due to a distributor transition in California. The company is currently negotiating a settlement with former distributor Republic National Distribution Company, with unresolved issues around inventory treatment potentially weighing further on shipments and revenue in the current fiscal year.

Adding to investor unease, Treasury Wine Estates announced a pause on its A$200 million share buyback program, pending greater visibility on trading conditions and global demand trends.

The setback underscores the mounting pressure facing international wine producers amid shifting global consumption patterns and economic uncertainty. Analysts suggest Treasury Wine may need to recalibrate its growth strategy as it navigates slower recovery in China and operational challenges in the U.S., its two largest export markets.