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Current account surplus in Thailand is expected to reach 10 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, beating last year’s record of 8 percent. The huge build-up in C/A surplus has been driven by weak import demand and not by strong export growth.
Based on the balance of payments, exports shrank 1 percent in the year up to September, only to be dwarfed by the 8.4 percent fall in imports. And the weak import demand is a reflection of the lackluster domestic demand.
Growth in investment remained the major drag on the economy. Overall investment growth came in a mere 1.4 percent, its slowest in a year. Indeed, private investment growth was recorded at -0.5 percent.
"If we were to see GDP growth gaining momentum going forward, it is crucial to see significantly stronger domestic investment growth. Arguably, that may mean a sharp narrowing of the C/A surplus is warranted," DBS commented in its latest research report.
