Tesla Sales Growth 2024: Bernstein Warns of Flat Growth Despite Price Cuts

Tesla Sales Growth 2024 May Stall Despite Price Cuts, Bernstein Warns

Tesla Inc. is facing a challenging year, with Tesla sales growth in 2024 predicted to stall despite price reductions. Analysts at Bernstein expect the electric vehicle (EV) giant to see a rocky path ahead, and even the anticipated robotaxi launch may not significantly boost growth.

“We think it is unlikely that Tesla will grow units this year, even assuming lower prices and/or very favorable financing,” stated Bernstein analysts in their recent note.

Tesla’s Q3 deliveries totaled 435,059 vehicles, falling short of Wall Street expectations of around 461,000 units. Looking forward to Tesla sales growth in 2024, Bernstein forecasts deliveries to reach approximately 1.8 million vehicles, well below the company’s goal of 2 million. This projection indicates flat growth year-over-year.

Lower-Priced Tesla Model Unlikely to Boost 2024 Sales

Tesla’s plans to introduce a lower-priced vehicle in the first half of 2025 are not expected to significantly drive demand, the analysts noted. Bernstein predicts that any changes to the lineup will be “modest,” and a lower-cost "Model 2" will likely not arrive in substantial volume until after 2026. As a result, Tesla's sales growth in 2024 is expected to remain stagnant.

While attention has shifted toward Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi service, scheduled to be discussed at an Oct. 10 event, Bernstein highlights regulatory concerns. The analysts point out that Tesla lags in securing regulatory approval for robotaxis, which may be difficult to achieve without comprehensive local trials.

Looking ahead, Tesla is expected to face ongoing challenges in 2024, with an aging product lineup and growing competition in the EV market. Bernstein maintains an “underperform” rating on Tesla stock, emphasizing the hurdles the company will need to overcome to achieve meaningful Tesla sales growth in 2024.