TSMC Q2 Profit Set to Surge Despite Tariff and Currency Headwinds

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world’s leading maker of advanced AI chips and a key supplier to Nvidia and Apple, is projected to report a record second-quarter profit of T$377.4 billion ($12.9 billion), marking a 52% year-over-year jump, according to LSEG SmartEstimates. The company will release results at 0530 GMT on Thursday, with its earnings call to follow at 0600 GMT.

TSMC has already flagged a 38.6% revenue increase for the quarter ending June 30. If profits exceed T$374.68 billion, it will mark TSMC’s highest-ever quarterly earnings and its sixth straight quarter of growth.

Despite the strong performance, the company faces headwinds. Potential new tariffs from the U.S. under President Trump’s trade policies could impact demand. In April, Taiwan faced the possibility of a 32% reciprocal tariff, though no final figures have been confirmed. TSMC acknowledged in June that tariffs have had an indirect impact, pushing prices higher and slightly weakening demand.

Currency pressures also loom large. The Taiwan dollar has appreciated 12% against the U.S. dollar in 2025. TSMC noted that every 1% rise in the Taiwan dollar reduces its gross margin by 0.4 percentage points, and June's figures showed a total hit of over 3 percentage points.

In March, TSMC announced an additional $100 billion investment in the U.S., adding to its $65 billion commitment to three Arizona plants, further cementing its role in the global semiconductor supply chain.

TSMC stock soared 80% last year, but has gained only 5% in 2025 due to concerns over tariffs and currency effects. Investors will closely watch the third-quarter guidance for clarity on how these macro factors could influence future performance.