South Korea’s Exports Expected to Drop in April Amid U.S. Tariff Pressures

South Korea’s exports likely declined in April for the first time in three months, hit by escalating U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump, according to a Reuters survey. Economists polled between April 23-28 forecast a 2.0% year-on-year drop, following a 3.0% rise in March. The data provides an early snapshot of global trade, as South Korea is the first major exporter to release monthly trade figures.

Tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel and automobiles in March and April, along with a 10% blanket tariff, have started to impact both market sentiment and actual trade volumes. Additional reciprocal tariffs on countries including South Korea are temporarily paused for 90 days, but more duties on auto parts and semiconductors are expected.

“The impact of tariffs is showing in hard data,” said Meritz Securities economist Stephen Lee. Hana Securities’ Chun Kyu-yeon echoed the concern, citing further risks from continued U.S.-China trade tensions.

In the April 1–20 period, exports were down 5.2%, with autos and steel dropping 6.5% and 8.7%, respectively, while semiconductors rose 10.7%. Shipments to the U.S. fell 14.3%, and exports to China dropped 3.4%. Despite this, chip exports, South Korea’s largest sector, remained resilient.

Imports are projected to have declined by 7.0%, the sharpest fall since June 2024. The trade surplus is estimated at $4.35 billion, down from $4.92 billion the previous month.

South Korea’s full April trade data will be released on May 1 at 9 a.m. local time (0000 GMT), offering further insight into how global tariff disputes are reshaping trade flows in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.