South Africa's current account deficit to highlight ongoing vulnerability

South Africa's current account (C/A) deficit for Q4-2014 will be released on Tuesday. According to Standard Chartered research forecasts:

• We forecast a still-wide deficit of 5.5% of GDP (market consensus: 5.8%). 
• While most oil importers will have benefited from lower oil prices in Q4, South Africa's Q4 trade deficit more than doubled relative to the same period a year prior. 
• With mining and manufacturing both hobbled by the electricity crisis, there has been little evidence of an export recovery since then.
• The traditional year-end improvement in the C/A income balance may provide relief, but it is unlikely to be enough. 
• With the South African rand (ZAR) under pressure, a wide C/A deficit will highlight its ongoing vulnerability to a reversal of capital flows. 
• Even against a weak growth backdrop, import growth will likely outpace export growth according to Treasury forecasts.