Russia's monthly inflation rate likely to reach 0.6%

In Russia, the inflation rate recorded 15.6% year on year, which was 15.7% in September. The annual rate of inflation of the economy is about to enter a five-month period during which it will plummet rapidly due to base effects and RUB stability. Monthly inflation rate of the economy stood at 0.8% month on month. 

"But this level could moderate as the RUB has stabilised and is no longer exerting pass-through effects, in our estimation. The monthly rate is anticipated to decline gradually towards 0.6%", argues Barclays.

The inflation base effects are closer to a five-month period during which inflation rate was around 2.25% per month. 

"This indicates that the inflation can be brought down by about 1.6pp per month on average. It is assumed that this will usher in a rate cut cycle with the 11% key rate declining to 8.5% during the next three quarters. The main risk is that RUB volatility causes a new round of inflation pass-through to unhinge", added Barclays.