Russia's 2015 growth likely to be -4%yoy

Russia's Q3 real GDP climbed -4.1% from -4.6% in Q2, while consensus was expecting a -4.4%yoy.

The implied qoq reading is 0.1%, which improved modestly. So if this improvement sustains in Q4, this marks an end of recession. Q4 real GDP could probably resume its fall, stretching the recession to next quarter.

With an uptick in manufacturing, IP and investment, the production data is improving. Weakness is seen in consumption indicators, with retail sales, real wages and consumer credit, dropping with no indications of improvement.

Recent fall in oil prices is another dragging factor, which likely precipitata further plunges in revenues from exports, keeping the imports weak.

"Overall, we are retaining our forecast of -4% y/y growth in 2015, offsetting the rise in Q3 with an expected fall in Q4. For 2016, we retain our improved forecast for 0% growth under the expectation that global oil prices will reverse and start to increase in 2016 and increase further in 2017", says Barclays in a research note.