Russia trade surplus remains elevated due to import compression

Russia's trade surplus expanded in March to USD15.0bn from USD13.6bn in February. However, on a 12-month rolling basis the surplus has declined to USD183bn from a peak of nearly USD200bn in mid-2014. 

The main factor behind the decline was the 31% y/y drop in exports in March due to falls in energy prices. At the same time, much of the decline in export revenue has been offset by lower imports, down -37% in March due to RUB depreciation and declines in disposable income. 

Along with improvements in services and income deficits, Russia's current account surplus has increased to USD57bn as of Q1 15 from a low of USD35bn in 2013. Given the RUB appreciation that has taken place since Feb, Barclays think that the current account surplus will probably flatten out and remain at about this level during the remainder of 2015.