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Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) reported its weakest first-quarter iron ore shipments since 2019, as severe tropical cyclones disrupted its Pilbara operations in Western Australia. The mining giant shipped 70.7 million metric tons (Mt) of iron ore in Q1 2025, down from 78 Mt a year earlier, falling short of the 73.6 Mt forecast by analysts at Visible Alpha.
The company now expects full-year Pilbara iron ore shipments to land at the lower end of its 323 Mt to 338 Mt guidance range. Rio Tinto warned that further weather-related disruptions could increase the risk of missing its 2025 targets. The miner had already flagged potential production losses of up to 13 Mt in the quarter due to storm-related shutdowns at Dampier port.
Rio Tinto also cited limited flexibility in its system to recover from additional losses without delays in approvals for new mining areas and heritage clearances. Meanwhile, the company has been increasing shipments of lower-grade ore while developing its next-generation mines.
This slowdown puts Rio Tinto at risk of being overtaken by Brazil’s Vale (NYSE:VALE), which maintained its 2025 guidance of 325 Mt to 335 Mt. If Vale hits the top end of its range, it could reclaim the title of the world’s leading iron ore producer.
On the copper front, Rio Tinto’s consolidated production rose 16% year-on-year to 210,000 tonnes, though it slipped 8% from Q4 2024. At the Kennecott mine in Utah, copper output dropped 32% quarter-on-quarter due to unplanned conveyor failures but rose 7% year-on-year. The company confirmed the conveyor system is now fully operational.
