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Refugee crisis dents German consumer confidence

Refugee crisis seem to be having much greater impact on consumer psyche and most fearing that current crisis will deepen economic problems in Europe's largest nation. So far this year hundreds of thousands of refugee displaced by war and economic crisis from Syria, Africa and Afghanistan have already appeared in Germany, seeking asylum and more are arriving by the day. Current refugee influx rate to Germany standing at 10,000/day.

  • In response German GFK consumer confidence dropped to 9.4 in November, down from 9.6 in October. This marks third monthly decline in a row.
  • Economic expectations declined for fifth time in a row. Expectations declined by -9.3 points after -10.2 points decline in October. Expectations have dropped to negative zone (-2.9), for first time in a row.

German are fearing that current inflow of refugees will worsen the employment scenario of the country over the next few months.

  • According to the survey 70% of the respondents felt that unemployment will rise due to migrant crisis, significant rise of from October's 44% and July's 25%. Only 10% of the survey respondent felt that refugee crisis will bring down unemployment.

However, other measures in the survey such as willingness to buy and income expectation despite marginal drop has remained broadly stable.

Expect migrant crisis to do more psychological damage to Germany.

  • Market Data
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