Poland’s growth cycle likely easing

In recent weeks, the Polish zloty has been unusually subdued, even against an already soft euro. Even if this is not viewed as a result of local factors – a glance at the Hungarian forint might clarify that this is happening to CEE currencies in general; even the usually solid Czech koruna is under fire – macroeconomic and political factors are not aiding Poland, noted Commerzbank in a research report.

German demand has been decelerating, which might inevitably impact Polish growth; inflation remains low; and the trouble with the EU on rule of law has not gone away. More data were released yesterday, implying that the growth cycle is easing. Polish manufacturing data for April surprised to the upside. It grew 0.5 percent sequentially, after a fall of 0.3 percent in the previous month.

“Manufacturing growth may be only a secondary factor for the zloty at the moment, but its slowing pace hurts, at the margin”, added Commerzbank. 

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