Overbought & selling pressures in major trend signalled by leading oscillators, Bears fall back in range on failure swings at range resistance, RSI shows faded strength to plummet prices below EMAs
EURAUD has seen a topsy-turvy swings in both minor as well as major trends, the pair has relentlessly been slipping from the peaks of 1.6594 levels to the 1.6132 levels.
Minor trend analysis: Ever since the failure swings were observed at the stiff resistance of 1.6595 levels with 3-black crow patterns, bears managed to counter triple bottom pattern.
Consequently, the current price is plunged below 7, 21 & 100-DMAs, bulls attempt to resume with hammer formation, but technical indicators bearish bias, more slumps likely upon bearish MACD crossover.
Medium term perspectives: Due to the overbought and selling pressures in the major trend signalled by leading oscillators, bears resume to bring the major trend fall back in the range upon failure swings at the range resistance, where RSI shows faded strength at 65 levels to plummet prices below EMAs (refer monthly chart).
Hence, although it looks like the major trend is inching higher, the previous upswing seems unlikely to prolong as both leading and lagging indicators are indicating the prevailing bearish sentiments in both minor and major trends.
Trade tips: On trading perspective, at spot reference: 1.6136 levels, contemplating above technical rationale, we advocate tunnel options spreads using upper strikes at 1.6160 and lower strikes at 1.6180 levels, the strategy is likely to fetch leveraged yields as long as underlying spot FX remains above lower strike on the expiration.
Alternatively, shorting EURAUD futures contracts are advocated with a view of arresting potential slumps.
We advocated this strategy as RBA is lined up for their monetary policy meeting in the 1st week of March, following the ECB’s surprisingly dovish message in the recent past, RBA is priced just 5% for cash rate cuts (major consensus is status quo). Thus, we see significantly less upside for EURAUD in the near term, the pair could probably show slumps further in the near term.