Oil prices jumped on Thursday as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions revived concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, with reports suggesting Washington is preparing to deploy additional forces to the region.
Brent crude futures for December climbed 4.6% to $102.58 a barrel by 15:40 ET, while November West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 3.1% to $93.18. Brent rose roughly 14% in September, marking its strongest monthly advance since July, while WTI gained about 5%.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. plans to send a third aircraft-carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps ships to the Middle East. The deployment could add between 9,000 and 10,000 U.S. troops by the end of November. The report also said President Donald Trump expects U.S. strikes on Iran could resume that month.
Trump told reporters Thursday that he must "make a decision" on Iran, adding that Tehran would either agree to a deal or "won’t exist any longer."
Despite heightened geopolitical risks, Middle East oil shipments have shown signs of recovery. Kpler data showed regional crude exports reached 16.328 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the conflict began in February. Saudi Arabia has also resumed tanker loadings from Yanbu after restarting its East-West Pipeline.
Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor said flows through the Strait of Hormuz have continued to improve, approaching 11 million barrels per day in the week ending September 29. However, Kpler estimates September Middle East exports remained about 3.2 million barrels per day below February levels.
Diplomatic uncertainty is also supporting crude prices. Trump recently rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in return for an end to hostilities, sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. Bloomberg reported Thursday that Tehran may be willing to restore access for nuclear inspectors in exchange for sanctions relief.
Meanwhile, diesel remains another market concern after U.S. prices hit a record $6.5276 per gallon last week. Trump said discussions over a possible U.S. diesel export ban are continuing as inventories remain historically low.


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