Oil Prices Hold Steady as Tariff Threats and OPEC+ Moves Stir Market Uncertainty

Oil prices remained steady in Asian trading on Tuesday following a 1.2% jump in the previous session, as geopolitical tensions and supply concerns weighed on investor sentiment. Brent crude futures for May delivery held at $73.05 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stayed muted at $68.65.

The rally earlier was driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from countries purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela, effective April 2. The move, aimed at pressuring Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s regime, sparked fears of supply disruptions. Venezuela, a key oil exporter to nations like China, India, and the U.S., recently boosted crude output to 918,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February, exporting roughly 750,000 bpd.

Analysts at ING noted that the tariffs could tighten the global oil balance significantly, given Venezuela’s export volumes.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to proceed with a planned output increase of 135,000 bpd in May, marking a second straight monthly hike. However, to counter previous overproduction, seven member countries will implement additional voluntary cuts ranging from 189,000 to 435,000 bpd through June 2026. This mix of production hikes and compensatory cuts adds complexity to the near-term supply outlook.

Investors are also closely watching U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which could influence Russian oil supply if successful. Media reports indicated ongoing discussions about a Black Sea ceasefire, potentially easing tensions and increasing supply from Russia—adding another layer of uncertainty for oil markets.

The combination of U.S. tariff threats, OPEC+ output plans, and geopolitical developments is keeping oil prices in check, as traders await clearer signals on future supply-demand dynamics.