Oil Prices Fall After Biggest Weekly Surge in 2024 Amid Middle East Tensions

Oil prices dipped in early trading on Monday, following their largest weekly surge in over a year, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell by 0.5% to $77.62 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.5% to $74.03 per barrel.

Last week, Brent saw an 8% weekly gain—the most since January 2023—while WTI surged 9.1%, its largest increase since March 2023.

Independent analyst Tina Teng noted that the recent price dip is likely due to "profit-taking" after last week’s rally. However, fears of an escalating conflict between Israel and Iran continue to push oil prices higher. "Geopolitical tensions are now playing a key role in shaping market trends," Teng said.

Escalation in Middle East Tensions

On Sunday, Israel targeted Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, approaching the first anniversary of Hamas' attacks that led to ongoing conflict. Iran also launched missile attacks on Israel in response to Israeli actions in the region, increasing market uncertainty.

Geopolitical Risks and Oil Supply

Despite the oil price surge, ANZ Research believes the conflict's impact on global oil supply remains limited. The likelihood of a direct attack on Iran's oil facilities is seen as low, as this would disrupt international relations and provoke a severe response. Furthermore, OPEC's spare capacity, approximately 7 million barrels per day, provides a buffer against potential supply disruptions.

At its October 2 meeting, OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) maintained their oil output policy, with plans to start gradually increasing production in December.