OPEC+ Expected to Keep Oil Output Steady Amid Market Glut Concerns

OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain its current oil production levels at its upcoming Sunday meetings, according to four sources familiar with the discussions. The alliance, which accounts for nearly half of global oil output, appears to be easing its push to reclaim market share as fears of a potential supply glut weigh on the market.

The meeting comes at a delicate moment, coinciding with renewed U.S. efforts to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Any breakthrough could lead to a relaxation of sanctions on Russia, potentially adding more barrels to the global supply. Conversely, if negotiations fail, Russia may face even tighter sanctions that could restrict its oil output further. OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and key allies led by Russia.

Global oil benchmarks continue to face downward pressure, with Brent crude ending the week near $63 a barrel, marking a 15% decline so far this year. The drop comes as OPEC+ halted its production hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after previously releasing around 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025.

Despite those increases, the group still maintains roughly 3.24 million barrels per day of existing production cuts—equivalent to about 3% of global oil demand. Sources indicate that the upcoming meeting is unlikely to change those levels. Instead, delegates are expected to focus on the long-debated issue of establishing updated production capacity assessments that will determine output quotas from 2027 onward.

This discussion has proven contentious. Countries like the United Arab Emirates, which have significantly expanded their production capacity, are pushing for higher quotas. Meanwhile, several African producers facing declining output capabilities oppose any cuts to their existing allotments. Similar disputes contributed to Angola’s departure from OPEC+ in 2024.

Meetings are set to begin at 1300 GMT, with markets closely watching for any signals that could influence future oil supply dynamics.