Netherlands exports benefit from cheap euro

The export volume of goods remained stagnant in August compared to July (seasonally adjusted). If the volume of exports remains constant in September, exports will show a 1% q-o-q increase in 15Q3. This is more or less in line with export growth posted in the first and second quarter, meaning that the impact of weakness in the global economy remains limited so far. 

Given the strength of export growth, the weakness of manufacturing is somewhat surprising. Production fell by 1.5% m-o-m in August, after a 0.4% decline in July. Momentum (3m/3m growth) declined from 0.3% in July to -0.1% in August. After slipping from 56.2 to 53 this summer, the PMI rose modestly to 53.7 in October. 

Producer confidence in the manufacturing sector, as measured by Statistics Netherlands, even declined in October. Despite the weakening in sentiment, both indicators still correspond with higher production growth than we currently see.