Neil Mitchell: Comprehensive Meteorological Report Proves Tech Advancements Have Saved Lives

Extreme weather has become the new norm as communities around the world are plagued by drought, fire, flood, mudslides, earthquakes and an assortment of other bizarre powers of nature. Some disasters are facilitated by a domino effect, when one extreme incident creates the potential for another.

“Burn scars that produce mudslides from rain have really been impacting the West Coast of the United States and parts of Western Canada this year,” said Insurtech co-founder, advisor and investor Neil Mitchell. “These mudslides are occurring in areas where there was previously wildland fire. So, basically these communities have just dealt with one disaster and then have to turn around and deal with another extreme event and potential disaster.”

As scientists scramble to understand the changes to climate that are making extreme weather events even more powerful, there are yet other experts who are creating the means to understand and accurately predict extreme weather patterns.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), weather, climate or water-related disasters have “occurred every day on average over the past 50 years.”

These events have killed 115 people and caused US $202 million in losses daily, per the organization’s new report, which is reportedly the most comprehensive review of economic losses and mortality from climate extremes to date. The assessment spans the last 50-years of incidents.

“This report provides incredible insight for people specializing in re/insurance, climate, risk management and disaster management. Preparation has always been key to loss prevention, risk management and risk mitigation, risk transfer and remains so as extreme events and disasters are becoming even more powerful and prolific,” Mitchell said.

The number of disasters has increased five-fold over the last five decades, courtesy of climate change, more extreme weather and improved reporting.

“The global insurance protection gap is ever-expanding due to more extreme weather and natural catastrophe events,” said Mitchell. “However, improved disaster management, risk management practices, risk technologies, data analytics, application of artificial intelligence (AI) and early warnings have helped decrease the number of deaths.”

According to the WMO, those deaths have decreased three-fold.

Advancements in data, analytics, AI and technology, particularly in the area of computer learning, are helping to curb human loss from severe weather.

For example, Rice University engineers “have created a deep learning computer system that taught itself to accurately predict extreme weather events, like heat waves, up to five days in advance using minimal information about current weather conditions.”

In a degree of irony, the self-learning “capsule neural network” uses an analog means of weather forecasting that computers made obsolete in the 1950s.

The network examines hundreds of pairs of maps during training, with each showing surface temperatures and air pressures at a height of five-kilometers, plus each pair showing those conditions several days apart. The training phase includes scenarios that produce extreme weather like extended cold spells or hot spells that can lead to hazardous winter storms or deadly heat waves.

“Once trained, the system was able to examine maps it had not previously seen and make five-day forecasts of extreme weather with 85% accuracy,” according to the article.

Rice’s Pedram Hassanzadeh, co-author of the study, explained in the American Geophysical Union’s Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems that the system could serve as an effective early warning system for forecasters and also as a tool for learning even more about how atmospheric conditions generate extreme weather.

“One of the most remarkable things about any technological or scientific advancement is that great minds can build upon the data, information, knowledge, wisdom and expertise of others, creating even greater understanding and more remarkable solutions. As weather extremes continue, these kinds of tools, and the advancements that are sure to come will be key to saving lives and understanding how to properly protect and re/insure properties, individuals and communities,” Neil Mitchell added.

This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or the management of EconoTimes