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Short term divergence in monetary policy expectation with a decisive break makes this pair so interesting to take positions in short side.
- Bulls got hammered at falling trend line against dollar around 0.772-0.775 area, after Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) asst. governor Mc Dermott suggested possibility of a rate cut over the next few meetings.
- Bank of Canada (BOC) governor Poloz indicated towards rate stability as RBC moves to wait and watch mode. Moreover rising crude oil prices would provide support to loonie.
Technical outlook -
- Kiwi has failed to break above its falling trend line, whereas Lonnie has broken below important support around 1.235-1.24 area against dollar.
- NZD/CAD has broken an important support of rising trend line around 0.935.
Pair as of now is trading close 0.92 and further downfall is very much likely. However 0.895 area remains key support and provide support for Kiwi bulls. Pull backs would pose better chance to get into the trade.
Today's speech by Governor Poloz around 14:30 GMT would make things clearer.
Next week remains of utmost importance with RBNZ and FED interest rate decision. Loonie and Kiwi might move opposite, should RBNZ provide a cut and dovish FED pushes oil price higher.
