US Stock Futures Hold Steady as Tesla, Alphabet Earnings and Iran Conflict Dominate Market Focus 
Houthi Naval Blockade on Saudi Arabia Escalates Iran Conflict, Threatens Global Oil Supply 
Asian Markets Cautious as Oil Tops $90, AI Earnings and Fed Rate Fears Weigh on Sentiment 
Gold Prices Slip Near $4,000 as U.S.-Iran Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears 
US Dollar Holds Near One-Week High as Middle East Tensions and Oil Prices Drive Market Sentiment 
Gold Price Surges Above $4,100 as Middle East Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Demand 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady for 14th Month as Economic Recovery Remains Uneven 
Oil Prices Hold Steady as U.S.-Iran Conflict and Houthi Blockade Keep Markets on Edge 
India FMCG Q1 Earnings Preview: Higher Input Costs Likely to Weigh on Profit Margins 
Asian Stocks Rise as Oil Retreats on Iran Ceasefire Hopes Ahead of Key AI Earnings 
Deutsche Bank Says Fed Balance Sheet Cuts Could Weaken US Dollar Instead of Boosting It 
Germany Producer Prices Rise 1.8% in June, Missing Forecasts 
Oil Prices Extend Four-Day Rally as U.S.-Iran Conflict and Red Sea Threats Raise Supply Fears 
Trump Set to Unveil New Tariffs on Dozens of Countries as Global 10% Duty Nears Expiration 
Hong Kong AI Stocks Rally as Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 Launch Boosts Market Optimism 
Mizuho’s Asia hardware and semiconductor analysts have raised their 2025 forecast for Nvidia’s AI GPU shipments, projecting an 8-10% increase over their July 2024 estimates. The revision is driven by supply chain improvements, particularly advancements in CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology.
Shipment Projections and CoWoS Technology
The report suggests that Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will ship between 6.5 and 7 million AI GPUs in 2025, including 3 million CoWoS-S units. These shipments will mainly consist of Nvidia's Hopper and Blackwell models, with CoWoS-S reaching yields of over 99%. Furthermore, Nvidia's CoWoS-L process is expected to produce between 3.8 and 4 million units, focusing on high-demand GB200 server racks, with around 80-90% of the production dedicated to this line.
TSMC's Production Expansion and Supply Chain Improvements
Mizuho’s revised forecast coincides with the expansion of Nvidia’s production partner, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM), which is doubling its annual wafer capacity. The report notes that CoWoS supply constraints are likely to continue into 2025 but are expected to ease as TSMC's annual wafer capacity surpasses 650,000, a 100% increase year-over-year. Additionally, to mitigate supply-demand pressures, some back-end (on-substrate) processes are anticipated to be outsourced to Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE).
Blackwell GPU and Supply Chain Outlook
Mizuho analysts believe that concerns about potential delays in the rollout of Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs are “exaggerated.” Both TSMC and SK Hynix Inc. (KS:000660) are expected to achieve sales growth following the planned launch of Blackwell GPUs in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Overall, Mizuho analysts do not foresee any significant delays in semiconductor production, including AI GPUs and ASICs, impacting AI server manufacturing in 2025. They also note that Taiwanese back-end equipment vendors, such as Allring Tech, are likely to benefit from TSMC's efforts to localize its supply chain.
