Oil Prices Rebound as U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Offset Oversupply Concerns 
Korea Zinc Plans $6.78 Billion U.S. Smelter Investment With Government Partnership 
Japan Business Sentiment Hits Four-Year High, Boosting Expectations of BOJ Rate Hike 
South Korea Extends Bond Market Stabilization Measures Amid Rising Financial Risks 
ASX Shares Slide After ASIC Imposes A$150 Million Capital Requirement 
Gold Prices Dip as Markets Absorb Dovish Fed Outlook; Silver Eases After Record High 
Ireland Limits Planned Trade Ban on Israeli Settlements to Goods Only 
Global Markets Slide as Tech Stocks Sink, Yields Rise, and AI Concerns Deepen 
U.S. Stock Futures Mixed as Tech and AI Stocks Face Pressure Ahead of CPI Data 
Fed Rate Cut Signals Balance Between Inflation and Jobs, Says Mary Daly 
Modi and Trump Hold Phone Call as India Seeks Relief From U.S. Tariffs Over Russian Oil Trade 
Russia Stocks End Flat as Energy and Retail Shares Show Mixed Performance 
Australia’s Labour Market Weakens as November Employment Drops Sharply 
Dollar Struggles as Markets Eye Key Central Bank Decisions and Global Rate Outlooks 
Mizuho’s Asia hardware and semiconductor analysts have raised their 2025 forecast for Nvidia’s AI GPU shipments, projecting an 8-10% increase over their July 2024 estimates. The revision is driven by supply chain improvements, particularly advancements in CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology.
Shipment Projections and CoWoS Technology
The report suggests that Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will ship between 6.5 and 7 million AI GPUs in 2025, including 3 million CoWoS-S units. These shipments will mainly consist of Nvidia's Hopper and Blackwell models, with CoWoS-S reaching yields of over 99%. Furthermore, Nvidia's CoWoS-L process is expected to produce between 3.8 and 4 million units, focusing on high-demand GB200 server racks, with around 80-90% of the production dedicated to this line.
TSMC's Production Expansion and Supply Chain Improvements
Mizuho’s revised forecast coincides with the expansion of Nvidia’s production partner, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM), which is doubling its annual wafer capacity. The report notes that CoWoS supply constraints are likely to continue into 2025 but are expected to ease as TSMC's annual wafer capacity surpasses 650,000, a 100% increase year-over-year. Additionally, to mitigate supply-demand pressures, some back-end (on-substrate) processes are anticipated to be outsourced to Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ASE).
Blackwell GPU and Supply Chain Outlook
Mizuho analysts believe that concerns about potential delays in the rollout of Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs are “exaggerated.” Both TSMC and SK Hynix Inc. (KS:000660) are expected to achieve sales growth following the planned launch of Blackwell GPUs in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Overall, Mizuho analysts do not foresee any significant delays in semiconductor production, including AI GPUs and ASICs, impacting AI server manufacturing in 2025. They also note that Taiwanese back-end equipment vendors, such as Allring Tech, are likely to benefit from TSMC's efforts to localize its supply chain.
