Quotes from Lloyds Bank
- US payrolls are forecast to grow by more than 200k in February for the 12th successive month. Our forecast is for a 245k rise, less than last month but still more than sufficient to continue to push unemployment lower.The unemployment rate is forecast to fall back to its post-recession low of 5.6%, after a modest rise last month that was due to increased labour market participation.
- The monthly earnings data are less reliable than other wage measures but receives plenty of attention because it is timelier.
- It rose sharply in January after disappointing in December. A further rise in February would be an indication that wages are starting to move up.
- Walmart's recent announcement that it is boosting wages is anecdotal evidence of emerging pressures and certainly this is something that the Fed will be watching closely.


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