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One day earlier than normal—due to the US Independence Day holiday—the June 2025 US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is set to be released on Thursday, July 3, 2025, at 12:30 pm GMT. Investors, politicians, and economists closely track this report since its influence on the US dollar, bond yields, and equity markets makes it a key sign of the condition of the US labor market.
Key predictions for June 2025 include a slowdown in employment growth, with most analysts anticipating between 110,000 and 129,000 new jobs, a drop from the 139,000 jobs created in May. The unemployment rate is projected to either stay at 4. 2% or rise somewhat to 4. 3%. Also, wage growth as measured by Average Hourly Earnings is expected to slow to +0. 3% month over month, from +0. 4% in May; the average workweek is predicted to stay constant at 34. 3 hours.
Given the recent pattern of waning job growth and continuing doubts about the resilience of the US labor market, this June NFP release is especially important. Market participants will be looking forward to the event as the results of the report will be thoroughly evaluated for their bearing on Federal Reserve policy.
