Jobs Checkpoint: December NFP Poised for Mild Rebound Under Pressure

Expected to show a slight recovery in hiring after prior distortions from government shutdowns, the December 2025 US Nonfarm Payrolls report is set for release at 8:30 AM ET (6:30 PM IST). Consensus estimates call for a gain of roughly 60,000 jobs, slightly lower than November's 64,000 but yet indicating ongoing, albeit modest, labor market expansion. As markets evaluate whether the economy is steadier or slipping further into a slower jobs regime, the data will be very carefully observed.

Economists think that, from 4.6%, the unemployment rate will edge down to 4.5%, implying that, in spite of reduced headline job growth, labor markets remain rather tight. Consistent with stable wage pressures generally in line with the Federal Reserve's inflation targets, average hourly income are expected to climb 0.3% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year. Modest job increases combined with somewhat reduced unemployment and consistent wage growth would point to a labor market that is cooling but not cracking.

For marketplaces, the stakes are great. Under President Trump's administration, an NFP print that fulfills or exceeds expectations might strengthen support for the USD and moderate the rate of predicted Fed rate reductions. On the other hand, a significant negative surprise would heighten worries about labor market softening and probably stimulate debate over past or more aggressive Fed easing, especially against a background of continuous tariffs and policy uncertainties.