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Driver of the yen remains outside Japan as the BoJ remained sidelined at the last week's meeting, whereas the improving risk sentiment and general USD strength brought USDJPY back to 124. Given eased concerns on Greece and stabilization in Chinese stock markets, the Fed hike outlook will continue to be the key driver of USDJPY. Having said that, Japan's Q2 growth picture has deteriorated recently.
Barclays notes:
- Given the subdued May Composite Index of Consumption, we forecast Q2 real GDP has shrunk by 0.5% q/q saar, or the first negative reading in three quarters.
- While we expect growth to turn positive in Q3 with rising wages supporting consumption, economic data will be closely watched to determine the economic outlook.
- This week, Japan will release May Index of All-Industry Activity (Wednesday) and June Trade Balance (Thursday). We expect May Index of All-Industry Activity to drop -0.8% m/m (consensus: -0.6%) while we look for June trade balance (nsa) to return to a surplus of JPY183bn (consensus: JPY46trn) with solid increase in exports and continued decline in imports.
