Latest data from St. Louis FED reveals that inflation expectations as of last week, stands at 2.13% as measured by 5 year- 5year (5y5y) forward inflation rate.
- Inflation expectations rose from 1.94% low post FOMC, however yet to take out the high of 2.17% reached earlier this year pre FOMC.
Inflation expectations are rising with rise in oil prices. US realized inflation might move up fast should oil price rebound.
With rising retail sales and steady demand in US domestic market, core inflation is sure to move up higher.
- Next week would be interesting to watch as current inflation moves closer to March FOMC high and FED releases monetary policy results on Monday. Next week's PCE inflation index is expected to boost inflation expectation further.
Impact on dollar -
- Dollar rose much faster than US treasury yields and inflation expectations driven by speculation over rate hike.
- So bulls' might not get a boost from rising inflation expectations in the short term, however it would help to keep dollar steady in the longer run.
Dollar's drop would push actual inflation and expectations higher, providing the boost required by treasuries.


Goldman Sachs Flags 3 Key Risks Ahead of Europe’s Earnings Season
Goldman Sachs Raises USD/JPY Forecast, Sees Yen Weakness Persist Through 2027
Goldman AM Sees Strong Buyout Opportunities in Japan, South Korea and Australia
Gold Surges Past $4150 on Dovish Fed Signals and Weak Jobs Data; Bullish Outlook Prevails
State of emergency in Crimea as Ukraine focuses pressure on ‘jewel in Putin’s crown’
Alcohol is one of the most dangerous drugs, yet its presence is ubiquitous in social settings and celebrations
Bank of America Upgrades T-Mobile to Buy, Says LEO Satellite Fears Are Overdone
JPMorgan Cuts Gold Price Forecast, Sees Bullion Reaching $4,500 by End of 2026
USA at 250: the Black American struggle for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness
Gold Pulls Back After Hitting $4,180 as Geopolitical Risk Sends Crude Higher 



