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Gold hits fresh all-time high on geopolitical uncertainty. It hit an all-time high of $2954 and is currently trading around $2939.36.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Gold to Record Heights
Ongoing uncertainty regarding impending U.S. tariffs, particularly by President Trump, is generating market volatility. Follow-on economic concerns and potential trade war impacts are pushing investors into so-called safe-haven assets such as gold. Tariffs can potentially raise consumer prices, reduce corporate earnings, and generate overall economic uncertainty. That uncertainty in the past has prompted investors to de-risk by investing in safer alternatives
U.S. Housing Market Shows Mixed Signals
U.S. existing home sales dropped 4.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million in January 2025, yet recording a year-over-year increase of 2.0%. The median price per sale climbed 4.8% from last year to $396,900, with a 19-month record streak of gains. Inventory grew 3.5% to 1.18 million units, or a 3.5-month supply. Regionally, sales decreased in the Northeast, West, and South but remained unchanged in the Midwest. High mortgage levels continue to be the largest affordability problem, taking 2024 sales to their lowest point since 1995. Forecasts indicate sales at approximately 3.9 million by Q1 2025, with long-term projections showing a decline to approximately 2.9 million by 2027
Anticipation of Rate Pause Increases
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, the chances of a rate pause in Mar 19th 2025 meeting have increased to 97.50% up from 97% a week ago.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Strategy
Gold prices are holding above short-term moving averages 34 EMA and 55 EMA and long-term moving averages (200 EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $2920 and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $2890/$2875/$2860/$2850/$2830/$2800/$2770/$2740. The near-term resistance is at $2955, with potential price targets at $2957/$3000.
It is good to buy on dips around $2890 with a stop-loss at $2870 for a target price of $3000.
