Global Equities Slip, Dollar Rises as Fed Chair Signals Smaller Rate Cuts; Oil Futures Flat Amid Middle East Concerns

MSCI's global equities index declined on Monday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is not in a rush to cut interest rates, leading to a rise in the dollar. Brent crude also experienced its most significant monthly and quarterly losses since late 2022, driven by concerns about waning global demand and tensions in the Middle East.

Oil Futures Flat Amid Volatility

The global benchmark, Brent crude, saw a 17% drop in the third quarter, its most substantial quarterly fall in a year. While geopolitical concerns about Middle East conflicts initially caused market volatility, declining global demand played a more significant role in the downward trend.

Stock Markets React to Powell's Comments

U.S. stocks faced volatility after Powell's comments indicated a cautious approach to rate cuts, with the likelihood of two 25-basis-point reductions this year, depending on economic developments. Some investors had expected larger cuts, causing stocks to fluctuate throughout the day.

“That sounded less dovish than the market had priced in,” said Robert Phipps, director at Per Stirling Capital Management. Powell’s comments reduced expectations of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut by the end of the year.

Wall Street Ends Quarter Mixed

Despite volatility, U.S. stock indices closed the session with mixed results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 17.15 points (0.04%) to 42,330.15, the S&P 500 added 24.31 points (0.42%) to 5,762.48, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 69.58 points (0.38%) to 18,189.17. The S&P 500 gained 2.01% for the month and 5.53% for the quarter. MSCI’s gauge of global stocks reflected around a 2% monthly gain and a 6% quarterly rise.

Dollar and Treasury Yields Rise

The dollar appreciated following Powell's remarks, reducing expectations for a larger rate cut. The dollar index increased 0.32%, with the euro dropping 0.27% to $1.1133 and the dollar strengthening 1% against the Japanese yen. U.S. Treasury yields also edged higher, with the 10-year yield increasing to 3.785%, and the 2-year yield climbing to 3.637%.

Energy and Gold Markets

In energy markets, U.S. crude settled down 1 cent at $68.17 per barrel, showing a 7% decrease for September, its largest monthly drop since October 2023. Brent crude declined by 21 cents to $71.77 per barrel, posting a 9% monthly drop and a 17% quarterly decrease. Gold prices eased after recent gains, with spot gold down 1% to $2,631.39 an ounce and U.S. gold futures dropping 0.54%.