2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
Moody's Upgrades Argentina's Credit Rating Amid Economic Reforms 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
Sell the Bounce": Gold Rally Stalls Near $4165 as Fed Hawks Slam the Door on Rate Cuts — Targets $4000/$3600 
Today’s space race could turn fatal if we don’t agree on new rules 
China’s AI Manufacturing Boom Masks Weak Consumer Economy, Citi Says 
Gold's 365-Day EMA Streak Since Oct 2023 Faces Its First Real Test at $3,980 — Break or Bounce to $4,140? 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
With Iran and the US signing a peace deal, where does that leave Benjamin Netanyahu? 
In CEEMEA, the ZAR remains the chief laggard, fiscal concerns coming to the fore and taking EURZAR higher for a fourth consecutive week. EURZAR has risen in 7 of the last 8 months, more often than not on political worries.
Thus, we advocate selling ZAR vs a 50:50 USD:EUR basket. Stopped out in COP vs CLP; stay short EURHUF through a 6m seagull.
We were stopped out of a long COP position despite the continued bullish action in oil, a specific illustration of a general dislocation between petro-currencies and the oil price.
We continue to hold a bullish position in HUF on the policy contradictions facing the NBH, while our EM strategists have added an outright short in ZAR against a 50:50 EURUSD basket.
In their view, the market is too optimistic that sovereign ratings downgrades will be postponed and/or the outcome of the ANC’s December elective conference deliver any structural policy relief.
They estimate that sovereign downgrades by both S&P and Moody’s would trigger about $5bn-$7bn of forced outflows.
Sell ZAR vs an equally weighted basket of EUR and USD. Enter 15.2740, review level 15.00, target 16.10.
Sold CLPCOP at 4.73 on October 19th. Stopped out at -1.37%.
Long a 6m EURHUF put spread (strikes 304297), short a 6m 312 call.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly EUR spot index is inching towards 37 levels (which is mildly bullish) while articulating (at 11:00 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
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