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XAGUSD has formed dragonfly doji at $14.787 levels which is considered to be bullish in nature that has taken the prices above 7DMAs.
We maintain our long exposure in precious metals space while choosing to hold off on re-establishing selected long recommendations in base for now. The previous long recommendations in metals this year were admittedly, but also frustratingly, ill-timed.
Nevertheless, despite a rallying US dollar, we have been very hesitant to initiate even tactical shorts considering the strong underlying demand, bullish risks around sanctions, and our bullish underlying base case views.
On the back of our forecasted FX-driven strength in gold, we still believe silver will outperform given its industrial linkages and technical set-up.
On the industrial front, while global economic growth has turned relatively less synchronized and more uneven, we still retain the base case that we are in the late- stages of this economic expansion, one of the strongest periods for both demand and prices of industrial commodities.
We believe that while silver’s main drivers for price will still be precious-specific catalysts like FX, real-yields, and inflation, this secondary industrial tailwind could once again excite investors and drive the ratio between the two metals lower towards 76 as silver outperforms gold.
Moreover, as our technical analyst has detailed, above $16.02/oz the upside window to $19.63/t remains wide open from a technical perspective which we also believe could help fuel silver outperformance.
Initiated longs in CME silver at $17.10/oz for Dec’18 delivery. Added an equivalent unit at $16.59/oz in May. For now, with a new entry level at current $14.907/oz levels, we uphold the strategy with a view of arresting upside risks. Courtesy: JPM
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index is flashing at -152 levels (which is bearish) while articulating (at 12:25 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
