FxWirePro: USD/CAD outlook – further downside likely

Initially call was given on the long side around 1.26 area for the pair, targeting 1.285, 1.32, 1.35 and 1.38 area while stop loss was suggested around 1.19 area.

While 3 of our target area got achieved, there could be significant downside risks to the final target in the near term. Instead with new economic developments, especially in US Canadian Dollar now has much greater potential to gain further over US Dollar in the near term.

Only thing preventing Loonie to go for much sharper correction is oil price, which has fallen sharply after countering resistance around 200 day moving average around $51. WTI is currently trading at $46.1/barrel. Despite recent fall, oil is most likely to gain with support around $43/barrel.

Dollar leg of the pair has taken a sharp back seat, while US Federal Reserve chose to maintain its zero rate policy (ZRP) in September meeting, which was followed by much weaker release of September payroll as well as retail sales raising doubts over momentum in US economy.

Trade idea -

• Sell USD against Canadian Dollar at current price (1.288) and at rallies, with targets around 1.265, 1.24, 1.217 and 1.20 area. Stop loss can be placed around 1.31, 1.32 and 1.35 depending on risk aversion.