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FxWirePro: Tomorrow is Brexit vote; expect big volatility

After several debates and more than a week of debating, United Kingdom’s Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal is coming up for voting in the UK’s House of Commons, which will surely define the Brexit path going ahead. Here are some of the key details you need to know heading to the vote.

The European Union leaders have already approved

Which day is voting?

  • Voting will be held tomorrow, on 15th of January.

What time is the vote?

  • The voting is expected to begin at 19:00 GMT.

Is Brexit deal alone up for voting?

  • The actions begin at 19:00 GMT but the Brexit deal voting could be delayed as the members of the parliament would be voting on several key amendments, each of which is likely to take 15-20 minutes.
  • There could be an amendment on the ‘Irish backstop’ or preventing the hard border part of the Brexit agreement, but it is not certain as the EU leaders have stood firm on the backstop issue.
  • Another amendment is expected which suggests that the parliament would not leave the Union without an agreement, even if the current one is rejected. This amendment has bipartisan support.
  • Voting is also expected on extending the timeline or implementation period.

What might happen if the deal is rejected?

  • This would be a nightmare scenario for the UK Prime Minister Theresa May as opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn is likely to push for a no-confidence vote if she loses to gather support for her negotiated deal and that might bring forward the next election.
  • Even if she stays as the Prime Minister, Mrs. May would have to return to Brussels to renegotiate a new agreement and as the time runs short she would have to push for an extension of the Brexit negotiations deadline which is now just months away.

Market reactions:

  • Expect waves on volatility, especially in the pound based pairs. Should the dead pass the parliament, the pound would very likely test the 1.32 resistance area against the USD.
  • Should it fail, the pound is likely to find itself around 1.25 area against the USD. However, the downside could be limited, if the no-deal avoiding amendment is passed.
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February 15 21:00 UTC Released

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-1541 %

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January 31 00:00 UTC 548761548761m

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January 31 00:00 UTC 548761548761m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

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2016 bln ARS

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