U.S. Banks Report Strong Q4 Profits Amid Investment Banking Surge 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Mexico's Undervalued Equity Market Offers Long-Term Investment Potential 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
China's Refining Industry Faces Major Shakeup Amid Challenges 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
Fed May Resume Rate Hikes: BofA Analysts Outline Key Scenarios 
Lithium Market Poised for Recovery Amid Supply Cuts and Rising Demand 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
We could still foresee bearish Antipodeans (AUD and NZD):
Book profits on short NZDUSD intra-week and rotate from AUDJPY cash short to AUDUSD. Uphold NZDJPY put spread.
This week we opted for some intra-week adjustments to our portfolio by locking in profits on our NZDUSD short ahead of a slew of important central bank catalysts and given already-large moves in markets in less liquid conditions.
We also closed our existing AUDJPY short near flat, but kept both the beta to AUD and the overall defensive tilt of the portfolio distinctly intact by rotating into short AUDUSD in cash, which also keeps us slightly net long USD position open as well. These moves are were made in light of potential bounces in risk ahead of a number of likely dovish central bank events and some August seasonality dynamics.
The broader composition of the portfolio continues to position for a grind lower in growth-sensitive currencies including AUD and NZD as the global growth continues to underwhelm and the trade war drags on.
Locally, both AUD and NZD sit in the midst of an ongoing central bank easing cycle, while growth and inflation outcomes are still trending soft. Over the medium term, these should be exacerbated by ongoing external dynamics from moderating China growth, trade war spill-over and poor historical performance during Fed easing cycles. Each options are also subject to important structural adjustments taking place over the medium- term.
While the domestic calendars look somewhat light in the near-term, especially in light of the RBNZ’s surprise 50bp cut, the overall direction for the antipodeans is likely lower but now through a slow and potentially uneven grind with both central banks on hold for at least the next couple months.
Trade tips:
Took profit on NZDUSD cash short intra-week. Marked at +1.99%.
Close short AUDJPY in cash. Marked flat.
Sold AUDUSD intra-week. Marked at +0.54%.
Hold a 6m NZDJPY put spread. Paid 1.07% at the end of May. Marked at +1.80%. Courtesy: JPM
