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EM currencies are entering a higher volatility regime, with heightened depreciation pressures through to Q1 2017.
A Trump presidency raises protectionist risk premium and higher US yields are disruptive for the fragile equilibrium in emerging markets.
After a painful sell-off (EM FX depreciating about 6%), opportunities should arise around Q1 to enter bullish EM positions. However, elevated risk premium means that the terminal value for EM FX is weaker than current spot rates.
Through to Q1 2017, our bias will be to opportunistically add bullish dollar risk, but will not preclude tactical opportunities to short dollars when positioning, sentiment, or technicals are stretched.
Investors with a long-term horizon are advised to wait until further depreciation offers attractive entry points for bullish EM exposure.
Through to Q1, currencies sensitive to Trump’s policies and to deterioration in risk sentiment are expected to underperform (MXN, BRL, ZAR, TRY, KRW, TWD, PHP) while those more insulated (INR, IDR, THB, RUB, CLP) should outperform. Selective carry strategies may be appropriate.
Regionally, EMEA (USD crosses) and LATAM will likely suffer at the expense of Asia in Q1, but the reverse is likely as the year progresses.
