FxWirePro: Natural gas outlook – upside limited, focus on weather

Natural gas taken support from $2.4/mmbtu has risen somewhat to trade around $2.5/mmbtu, however in spite of recent drop and improvement of mood towards commodity segment, upside could be very much limited in natural gas, and instead focus is on more to the downside.

According to the latest report from US Energy Information Administration (EIA), working gas in underground storage is at 3,633 billion cubic feet (Bcf), 155 Bcf above 5 year average and 443 Bcf higher than last year.

Slowly we are approaching to that time of the year, when Natural will start getting depleted from underground storage as winter approaches in US. As of now, this year is not expected to be very clod.

So price forecast remains bearish but will keep a cautious eye on the weather horizon.

Trade idea -

• Price is expected to remain capped below $2.55/mmbtu and $2.65/mmbtu and focus is towards $2.27/mmbtu going ahead. Long side play is not preferred, rallies would be considered as selling opportunities.
• Going ahead Price is expected to drop towards $1.5/mmbtu and for that $3.2/mmbtu should be considered as resistance.