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FxWirePro: NZD/USD rejected at lows below the 0.69 handle, holds cloud support, weakness only on break below

  • Markets largely ignored 'New Zealand Treasury Monthly Economic Report' for the month of May, NZD/USD briefly slipped below the 0.69 handle.
     
  • Treasury Report for May noted that data shows economy has grown at a reasonable pace in 2016, while adding that inflation may 'slightly higher' than forecast in budget update.
     
  • Kiwi also failed to take advantage of the persisting risk-on environment as markets expect a dovish RBNZ in the week ahead.
     
  • NZD/USD slipped below 0.69 handle but found support by daily cloud-top at 0.6894. The pair has edged higher and is currently trading around 0.6925 levels.
     
  • Gains in its OZ counterpart post RBA decision helping upside in the pair.
     
  • Upside finds immediate resistance at 0.6940 (May 4th highs), then 0.6949 (June 6th highs) and 0.6950 (falling trendline).
     
  • Support on the downside is seen at 0.6894 (cloud top), 0.6885 (5-DMA) and further below at 0.6845 (50-DMA).
     
  • We see weakness only on break below cloud base, drag till 0.6845 (50-DMA) then likely. On the upside break above trendline at 0.6950 could see gains till 0.70 levels.

Recommendation: For now we would remain on the sidelines for further confirmation.
 

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